Buffet of hazards on the table as Central Canada faces spring storm

April will get off to a rough start across the Great Lakes as a tango of potent storms deliver a multi-day spell of foul weather to the region this week.

The first system will affect southern Ontario beginning Tuesday, bringing alternating periods of rain and heavy, wet snow to the region into Wednesday.

We’ll see a second low-pressure system develop over New England on Wednesday, spreading a shield of heavy, wind-blown snow over eastern Ontario and southern Quebec into Thursday.

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Any plans to remove winter tires this week should be rescheduled, and any travelling that needs to be done should be modified to avoid the worst of the impacts on Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecasters are confident in widespread disruptions, travel issues, and the possibility for power outages from gusty winds.

Given the dynamic nature of the setup over the region, there’s still low confidence in the exact track of the storm, precipitation amounts, and when the transitions between rain and snow will occur.

Tuesday: Rain arrives in southern Ontario

We’ll see a Colorado low pushing into the lower Great Lakes on Tuesday morning. Showers that arrive over southern Ontario in the morning will evolve into steady rain by Tuesday evening.

Rainfall totals of 30-50 mm are expected across southern Ontario, with the heaviest rains likely near the northern shores of Lake Erie, Lake Ontario, and southern Lake Huron. Locally heavier totals are possible.

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We’re likely to see a strong east wind blowing off Lake Ontario by Tuesday evening. Sustained winds close to 50 km/h with gusts to 80 km/h will lead to a threat for scattered power outages.

Expect rainfall and wet snow to lead to slick roadways beginning Tuesday evening and persisting through Wednesday and Thursday.

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Wednesday: Rain changes to snow, gusty winds may cause power outages

Ontario and Quebec will likely see the greatest impacts from this messy setup on Wednesday as our first storm continues and our second low-pressure system ramps up. For some areas, this will be a long-duration snowfall that’ll unfold through much of Wednesday and Thursday.

Temperatures will fall as the storm pulls in colder air from the north. We’ll see rain transition to wet snow across higher terrain by Wednesday morning, with a heavy band of accumulating, wet snow across northeastern and eastern Ontario.

Periods of wet snow will fill in across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) from Wednesday evening through Thursday. Slick roads will persist throughout the GTA for the Wednesday commutes, with gusty winds further complicating travel at times.

Cottage country and eastern Ontario appear to be facing the heaviest snow threat with this system, but where exactly the axis of heaviest snow develops will determine which areas see the greatest accumulations. Check back this week for the latest on this evolving setup.

Given that we’re still three days out, forecasters have low confidence in precisely where and when the transition between rain and snow will occur.

Inland areas that see the heaviest and most persistent wet snow could possibly exceed 20 cm by Thursday, with locations in eastern Ontario the most likely target.

Thursday: Second system brings heavy snow to eastern Ontario, Quebec

Our focus shifts to the second low-pressure system by Thursday. This coastal low over New England will force a renewed burst of heavy snow to spread over eastern Ontario and southern Quebec.

Expect treacherous travel across eastern Ontario and southern Quebec late Wednesday into Thursday as heavy, wet snow persists over the region.

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Beyond the system, expect blustery and chilly conditions for a couple days as the system slowly departs the region, then a warming trend into next weekend with temperatures climbing well above seasonal. Forecasters will continue to monitor conditions ahead of the total solar eclipse that’ll traverse the region on Monday, April 8.

Check back frequently for the latest on this evolving forecast over Ontario and Quebec.

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