Freeland resignation shakes up already fluid situation in House of Commons

Former cabinet minister Chrystia Freeland is officially vacating her seat in the House of Commons on Friday, leaving the Liberal government — which is within striking distance of a majority — one MP down for the time being.

Freeland's resignation adds to what was an already fluid situation in the House of Commons when MPs left Ottawa in December. The Liberals had picked up an extra seat on the final sitting day when former Conservative Michael Ma crossed the floor to the governing party — joining Chris d'Entremont who defected to the Liberals in November.

Ma's move put Prime Minister Mark Carney's government just one seat shy of a majority and Freeland's resignation will now put the Liberals back a seat, at least temporarily.

Freeland's now former riding is a safe one for the Liberals, but will likely still be vacant when MPs return to the House later this month.

The Speaker of the House of Commons has to give notice to the chief electoral officer that a seat is vacant — at which point the government would have 11 to 180 days to call a byelection.

Byelection campaigns last a minimum of 36 days, which means the earliest a byelection could happen is late February. There will also be a period where the results will need to be formalized before the winner can be sworn in.

The vote on the Liberals' main budget motion this fall — a confidence motion that narrowly passed and could have brought down the government if it failed — emphasized how crucial every vote is in this current Parliament.

The government is guaranteed to face one confidence vote during the winter sitting: a vote on spending estimates which needs to happen by the end of March.

The Liberals' budget implementation bill is also set to be studied at committee this winter and would need to face a third reading vote before being sent to the Senate. That vote would also be considered a matter of confidence.

Other byelections in the works?

Freeland accepted on Monday what's being described as a voluntary role advising Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and indicated she would be leaving Canadian politics.

But Freeland might not be the only former minister on their way to the House's exit door. Carney indicated earlier this week that he is expecting to call multiple byelections soon, though he didn't specify where.

"There'll be a few byelections coming up and we'll run great candidates and the people in those ridings will decide who they want to send to Parliament," Carney said during a news conference on Tuesday.

Freeland's seat is the only one currently vacant. But it's been reported that B.C. MP Jonathan Wilkinson and Toronto MP Bill Blair — both former cabinet ministers — are expected to be appointed to diplomatic positions, which would require them to vacate their seats.

Blair's riding is a Liberal stronghold and Wilkinson has won his seat by wide margins since he was first elected in 2015. If either MP resigns to take a diplomatic posting, the same byelection clock now ticking for Freeland's seat would start for their ridings.

Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux is also expected to vacate his seat in the coming year. It had been speculated that the Alberta MP might also cross the floor to join the Liberals following d'Entremont's defection, but he ultimately announced he would be leaving politics altogether.

Carney hinted last month that there are a number of opposition MPs considering joining the Liberals.

"I think that there is a spectrum of MPs with varying degrees of recognition of the serious situation the country is in, varying degrees of recognition that we need action, not slogans," he told CBC News chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton in a year-end interview.

NDP MP Lori Idlout told CBC News this week that Liberals have approached her about joining the governing party, but has decided not to cross "at this point."

"It's definitely weighed heavily on me, and I've had so many conversations with people and I just appreciate everyone who I've talked with," she said.