El Niño incoming? Forecasters see signs of big changes ahead

Forecasters see a growing chance for El Niño just in time for the peak of this summer’s hurricane season.

An ongoing La Niña event will slowly fade over the next few months, potentially giving way to a spell of warmer-than-normal ocean waters in the Pacific basin that could affect weather conditions around the world.

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La Niña fades into the springtime

Water temperatures around the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean continue running colder than normal, the hallmark of a La Niña event that began in October and continued into the new year.

Forecasters with the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) are confident that La Niña will fade rapidly heading into the spring months, with odds greater than 80 per cent that we’ll slip into ENSO-Neutral conditions between February and April.

Despite La Niña waning, the pattern’s influence on the atmosphere will likely continue into the beginning of the spring.

El Niño might take its place by the summer

What’s more noteworthy in the CPC’s forecast is that the odds of an El Niño event are growing for our upcoming summer season.

El Niño occurs when water temperatures in this part of the Pacific Ocean run at least 0.5°C warmer than normal for several consecutive months.

While signals are pointing toward a potential El Niño this summer, it’s highly uncertain what effects it may have on the season’s weather patterns across North America and the Atlantic Ocean.

During the summer season, El Niño’s greatest influence is its effect on the Atlantic hurricane season.

This pattern in the Pacific can increase the amount of wind shear that blows east over the Caribbean and Atlantic, potentially stifling any tropical systems that attempt to develop in the region. However, there are some notable exceptions, and it only takes one bad storm to make for a destructive hurricane season.

If an El Niño pattern develops, plenty of factors will determine what kind of influence it might have on our summertime conditions.

A strong event with very warm temperature anomalies will have a greater influence on the atmosphere than a weak, marginal El Niño. The timing of the pattern’s onset, as well as precisely where in the Pacific the warmer waters develop, also matter for potential effects on our weather.

Header image created using graphics and imagery from Canva.

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