KINSELLA: Don't expect Carney to get trade deal done with Trump in 2026

For 2025, I got some things right: Justin Trudeau would leave (Adrienne Batra and Brian Lilley still owe me lunch for that bet). The Liberals would have a leadership race and their numbers would improve (dramatically, as it turned out). The new Liberal leader would be an outsider (Mark Carney, take a bow). Doug Ford would win, big (and he remains a formidable political force).

But I got one thing very wrong: notwithstanding all the above, I thought Pierre Poilievre could still win. His polling lead was too big, I said.

Well, so much for that prediction.

My fallibility thus established, I herewith offer my predictions for 2026. I’ll try to do better this time.

1. Donald Trump will have a major health crisis

This one isn’t hard: the U.S. President is already clearly unwell. He can’t stand for extended periods, he has mysterious bruising and swelling in his extremities, he’s getting more MRIs than you get hot meals, and – whenever he opens his mouth – Trump genuinely sounds like he is experiencing actual dementia.

There’s lots of Kremlinology going on, so no one knows for sure. But something’s up.

The consequence of it could be a silent palace coup, and there already signs that is happening. Or, there could be serious moves made on the 25th Amendment, to formally remove him.

Either way, it isn’t just MAGA that is looking sickly – Trump is, too.

2. The Democrats will win

Full disclosure: I’ve actively campaigned for Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. So, you know I’m being truthful when I say I’ve been completely disgusted by how cowardly the Democrats have been since Trump’s return. With the exception of my preferred presidential contender Gavin Newsom, the Dems have been directionless, clueless and gutless.

Despite all that, and despite themselves, the Dems have been winning. In November’s races and in special elections, the Democrats have been crushing their Republican MAGA opponents in places where they haven’t been competitive in decades.

Trump has become a major liability to his party, and he is going to get beaten like a human piñata in November’s midterms.

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3. Mark Carney won’t get a trade deal

Not one worthy of the name, that is.

The issue isn’t the Prime Minister or any of the rotating cast of characters he picks to lead talks in Washington. The issue is Trump himself, for the reasons outlined above: the President seems to be losing his marbles. He’s not compos mentos, as lawyers like to say.

Carney and Trump could sign a deal on a Tuesday and – after, say, Trump sees a completely-factual commercial about tariffs on Wednesday – the President could lose his mind and tear up the deal. He’s invoked bogus “national emergencies” against us before, and he will do so again.

My advice to Carney: keep doing trade deals with the rest of the world. Stay calm. And wait until Trump loses power, or is a resident of the funny farm, whichever comes first.

4. The AI bubble will burst

And, possibly, take us with it.

Ominously, artificial intelligence is already showing signs of self-preservation. As Canadian tech genius Yoshua Bengio has noted, chatbots are becoming independent and starting to “drive bad decisions.” Stories litter the Internet (for now!) of people being nudged toward violence by AI-generated “companions.”

But for most of us – writers, musicians and artists in particular – AI remains an elaborate plagiarism platform, one that doesn’t generate intelligence so much as steal intelligence and offer it up as its own.

And, with so much capital invested in a concept that has so far been all lunchbag-letdown, a burst bubble seems highly likely. It’s happened before.

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5. Things will get worse

Sorry, but they will.

And not just the weather or the cost of beef, either. Us. The enemy is us, as comic strip Pogo once memorably said. We are becoming less intelligent. We are becoming more violent. We are becoming less and less preoccupied with the common good.

The cause is what you almost certainly are using to read my prognostications: the Internet. The device you hold in your hands has been the biggest political, cultural, personal and economic revolution in our lifetimes. Since it became ubiquitous in the 90s, the Internet has made all of human knowledge available to us, for free.

Instead of embracing that, humans have moved in the opposite direction, and become suckers for misinformation, disinformation, hate and conspiracy theories. We read less, and we yell more. It’s not good. Way to go, Al Gore.

Final prediction, then, gratis: I’ve now depressed you enough to drive you to an early drink.

Save one for me. I’m depressed, too, and I’m coming over.