LILLEY: Canada's national unity under threat as we head into 2026

In 2026, Canada’s national unity will be put to the test in more ways than one. We have separatist movements gaining steam in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec and a separatist agitator running the provincial government in British Columbia.

As Norman Spector, a top advisor to former B.C. premier Bill Bennett and chief of staff to former prime minister Brian Mulroney says on a regular basis, a Canadian PM has no more important job than keeping this huge country together.

“And I can’t recall any of them having as great a challenge as Mark Carney — with both Alberta and QC possibly heading to referenda and never say never Trump watching and perhaps waiting,” Spector said Tuesday.

He’s right, and while the domestic issues loom large, the prospect of Trump trying to benefit from national disunity shouldn’t be dismissed.

Quebec and Saskatchewan separatist sentiment continues to grow

Quebec will hold a provincial election by October that looks sure to be won by the Parti Quebecois. Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the party leader, is promising a referendum within his first mandate if he becomes premier and it isn’t hurting his chances with voters.

In Saskatchewan, resentment at the attitudes of politicians in Ottawa and voters in Central and Eastern Canada continue to fester without getting the same attention as the Alberta separatist movement, but the sentiment is real.

Alberta separatists could soon vote on a clear question

Meanwhile, in Alberta, those pushing for separation will most likely get to vote on a clear question on staying in Canada or cutting ties. Just before Christmas, Elections Alberta approved the question proposed by the Alberta Prosperity Project.

Recommended video

“Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be a part of Canada to become an independent state?” the question reads.

It’s a straight up and down question. There is no ambiguity, unlike Quebec’s 1995 question which asked about “a formal offer to Canada for a new economic and political partnership.”

If Alberta’s vote is a yes, Canada will need to negotiate

In fact, the Alberta question fits exactly what the Supreme Court of Canada said was needed in 1998: A clear question. Meaning if a clear majority of Albertans vote yes, the federal government, and the rest of the provinces, would be required by law to deal with an independent Alberta in good faith.

“A clear majority vote in Quebec on a clear question in favour of secession would confer democratic legitimacy on the secession initiative which all of the other participants in Confederation would have to recognize,” the Supreme Court stated.

That would apply to Alberta, as well.

As the full 1998 reference case states regarding Quebec, Alberta couldn’t unilaterally dictate terms of secession, but neither could the rest of Canada dictate terms to Alberta.

Western alienation is fuelling support for separation

This might sound like fantasy, but support for separation in Alberta, and in neighbouring Saskatchewan, has been polling at about 33%. Both provinces feel like their futures and their prosperity continues to be sacrificed for the well-being of provinces like Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia.

Serious people in both provinces — people who have devoted their lives to this country — are either at the tipping point or have passed it when it comes to wanting to go it alone.

British Columbia’s pipeline stance threatens national unity in the West

If legitimate concerns and grievances for both provinces are not dealt with by Ottawa, support for the separatist movement will only grow.

That would include the Carney government dealing with one of the biggest threats to national unity in Western Canada, the continued refusal of British Columbia Premier David Eby to be cooperative in any way shape or form with Alberta on the issue of a pipeline to the Pacific.

The fact that Alberta Premier Danielle Smith is talking about the need for a pipeline route to the Pacific that goes through the United States instead of B.C. should be of concern to all. It would show that Alberta’s prosperity would be better served working with the Americans than with other Canadian provinces.

Sadly, for those in the Ottawa bubble or captured by it, the likelihood of them being as concerned about separatism or national unity in Western Canada as they are about the possibility of Quebec separatism is slim to none. If the parochial attitude of the Laurentian elite, who continue to run this country, prevails then we will see scorn for the West and overtures to Quebec.

The U.S. factor adds new uncertainty to Canada’s unity debate

And against this backdrop is the fact that unlike in 1995 when Bill Clinton was in the White House and spoke in favour of a united Canada, we can’t rely on that same sentiment coming from the White House now.

That only adds to the uncertainty and the need for Carney and Ottawa to get the job done on national unity in this coming year.