Lorne Gunter: Poilievre Conservatives favour stunts over substance, and it's hurting them

I want the pipeline to the West Coast to succeed. And I want the federal Conservatives to knock off the Liberal government. So why do I agree with the Liberals that Tuesday’s opposition motion in the Commons to get MPs to show support for the pipeline was a “cheap political stunt” and “immature?”

Because it was.

On issue after issue after issue, Canadian voters side with the Conservatives. On housing, immigration, inflation, defence, crime and others, the Liberals have been forced to steal Conservative policies just to maintain their thin lead in polls.

Even on a pipeline from Alberta to some port in northern B.C., the Angus Reid Institute finds 60 per cent of Canadians are behind the idea.

So how come Prime Minister Mark Carney is as much as 15 points ahead of Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre in “preferred prime minister” polls, even though their parties are tied?

The answer is partly in Tuesday’s pipeline motion.

The motion was clever. It took parts of the memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith on Nov. 27 and converted them into a Commons’ resolution. The logic was the Liberals dare not vote against their own MOU.

But they did dare.

Joined by the Bloc Quebecois, the NDP and the Greens, the final tally was 196 to 139.

So how could the Liberals vote down their own agreement? Because it was obvious to just about everyone (except maybe the Conservatives themselves) that this was a stunt. Political game-playing. Pure theatre.

The motion was also full of danger for the Libs. It could have hived off the government’s “green” caucus from the rest of their caucus. The “green” caucus hates the MOU.

It might also have further fractured Carney’s cabinet. The day it was signed last month, the MOU caused well-known radical environmentalist, Heritage Minister Steven Guilbeault, to resign his portfolio. Ever since, Guilbeault has been on a tour of Quebec media outlets bashing the agreement (and the cabinet he once served).

If Carney had pushed his Liberals to support Poilievre’s motion, there might have been further defections.

Nearly two dozen Liberal MPs on B.C.’s Lower Mainland are also said to be worried about losing their seats over the pipeline. And Quebec’s 44 Liberal MPs know the Bloc used the Trudeau government’s decision to buy the Trans Mountain pipeline to steal Liberal seats in Quebec in the 2021 election.

The politics around West Coast pipelines is not limited to the West Coast.

Who knows? The pipeline might also, eventually, cause New Democrats who voted Liberal in huge numbers during the Trudeau years to drift back to their old party.

That would be good for the Conservatives, who almost never win Canadian elections unless the left is fractured.

So the Carney government could see the trap the Conservatives were setting from a kilometre away. They didn’t get sucked in.

All of this comes back to the biggest single impediment to Poilievre ever becoming PM.

He’s too satisfied with his own tricks (like this motion that turned the Liberals’ own words back on them), and too pleased with sloganeering and soundbites over substance.

Poilievre too often comes across as being the brightest sophomore in a university debating society.

On issue after issue, the Conservatives are more popular than the Liberals. And Carney has largely abandoned his “elbows up” strategy against U.S. President Donald Trump, which had largely been a flop, anyway.

The biggest draw for Carney in April’s election was his perceived ability to stand up to Trump. That advantage has largely evaporated, but too many voters don’t see Poilievre as serious enough to step in.

Poilievre will face a leadership review at his party’s convention in Calgary at the end of January.

He’ll survive that one, but if his prankster image continues to hold his party back, he may be unable to survive the next one.