Early taste of spring to depart Ontario as wet, colder weather coming

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Southern Ontario was on the receiving end of an early spring gift from Mother Nature this week, with double-digit warmth arising, but it will come with a wet, and eventually a chillier cost by the end of the weekend.

The influence of the upper-level ridge earlier this week, combined with some southerly help, boosted temperatures on Wednesday. Widespread mid- and upper-teen warmth was felt across the south, with some locales even reaching or exceeding the 20-degree mark.

However, that warmth is on its way out soon. Temperatures drop a bit for Thursday, but it will still be mild.

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There is also trouble brewing for Thursday and Friday, and again by the end of the weekend. Multiple systems move in with some unsettled weather, including rain and the chance of thunderstorms, before colder temperatures move back in and bring southern Ontario back to reality with a shot of snow for some areas.

Thursday and Friday: Rain, thunderstorms and flurries

The day will start off nice enough in southern Ontario, but a system traversing the central U.S. with many types of weather, including rain, severe thunderstorms and the risk of tornadoes, will nudge into the region later in the day.

Cloud cover will thicken in southern Ontario by Thursday afternoon, allowing for rain to creep into extreme southern Ontario first before hitting the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) a bit later in the day.

A widespread 10-20 mm of rainfall is expected for most areas.

As a result of some instability, there is even a chance of weak thunderstorms throughout Thursday afternoon and evening, with the risk greatest in the extreme southwestern corner of the province.

While storms aren't expected to become severe, there is a slight possibility of stronger winds, small hail in thunderstorms in extreme southwestern areas.

The rain will continue Thursday overnight and into Friday morning.

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Also on Friday, precipitation may change over into a period of flurries in parts of cottage country as the first round of colder air moves into the province.

So, don't get used to the warmth. Expect cooler, more seasonal temperatures in behind this system for the weekend, and colder temperatures for beyond.

Sunday to Monday: Cooldowns and snow make their returns

On the weekend, another system will develop and move in to close it out, featuring stronger dynamics and ingredients for more impactful weather. Precipitation begins with snow in northern Ontario, followed by rain in south and eastern sections.

The long-range pattern supports a deep trough in Eastern Canada while ridging occurs in the West. This will mean a pattern flip for Ontario. As a result, colder, more seasonal air for mid-March will funnel into Ontario.

So, this colder blast of air could mean a changeover into snow across southern and eastern Ontario by Monday, along with a further cooldown during the week.

Confidence is very low right now for exact snow totals and placement in the Great Lakes. Confidence is higher for a late-weekend system cooling down temperatures and bringing unsettled weather. Expect the return of winter driving conditions as snowfall chances are not over in southern Ontario. So, make sure you don't change your winter tires, yet.

Changeable temperatures are anticipated by mid- and late next week, and into the final week of March. That will also be an active pattern with a few significant systems, potentially wintry weather for parts of the region, but a higher potential for rain for southern areas. However, it is much too early to have confidence in the storm track and impacts.

Stay with The Weather Network for all the latest on your forecast across Ontario.

Thumbnail courtesy of Getty Images-Marcos Assis/1191292846-170667a.

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