8 things to watch for in Alberta politics in 2026

Say what you will about Alberta politics, they are seldom boring — at least, not these days.

"I remember the days when Alberta politics was boring, and that's no more," political analyst Lori Williams said.

Duelling citizen-led petitions related to separation, multiple uses of the notwithstanding clause, a slew of recall petitions, progress on a pipeline deal, and municipal elections across the province — 2025 was rife with headline-making political news.

And already, the year ahead is looking to be just as consequential, with Albertans likely to have their say in referendums on a number of issues.

Here are some of the things to watch for on the political landscape in 2026.

Separation anxiety

Premier Danielle Smith has said she supports a sovereign Alberta within a united Canada.

But speaking in May, after Mark Carney's Liberals won the federal election, she said a referendum on separation could happen in 2026 if enough citizens petitioned for it.

She then spent the summer traversing the province for town halls as part of her Alberta Next Panel, where separation was not directly a question on the table, but coloured much of the discussions.

A judge ruled in December a referendum on separation would be unconstitutional — a day after the province had tabled legislation to take the wind out of that court case and let a referendum go ahead.

The Alberta Prosperity Project is expected to start canvassing in the new year for support to get its question on a ballot: “Do you agree that the province of Alberta should cease to be part of Canada to become an independent state?"

Meanwhile, Thomas Lukaszuk has previously said his goal is to have MLAs vote on his question — "Do you agree that Alberta should remain within Canada?" — rather than have a provincewide referendum on the matter.

A referendum (or two) is not a guarantee. But assuming it happens?

"It's going to bring to the surface a lot of strongly held emotions," said Williams, an associate professor of policy studies at Mount Royal University.

"It could very well threaten divisions within the United Conservative Party, and between the United Conservative Party and more moderate Albertans."

LISTEN | Alberta’s very interesting year:

Recall petitions

A sizable chunk of the premier's caucus, including Smith herself, as well as at least two NDP MLAs head into the new year facing citizen-led recall petitions.

But according to Williams, they might not be worth too much anxiety over the holidays for those politicians.

"It's unlikely that many of them will be successful," said Williams. "It's a long shot, to say the least."

Many of the organizers behind the petitions have cited the government's use of the notwithstanding clause to end the teachers' strike as their key motivator. Others have said they do not feel listened to by their MLA.

The petitioners must get 60 per cent of voters from the last provincial election to sign on within a 90-day period. If that happens, a vote would be held on recalling the MLA, and if a majority votes in favour of recall, a byelection would be triggered.

Smith has said she thinks the recall process is being abused and that her government is watching the process to determine if they should make changes to the legislation.

Budget bottom line

The provincial government typically releases its budget in late February.

Already, the province is on track for a larger-than-projected deficit. Alberta's Finance Minister Nate Horner said in the summer that the province is expecting to be $6.5 billion in the red. His update last month showed that number holding relatively steady.

Softening oil prices are largely to blame. Alberta's revenue is set to fluctuate by $750 million for every one-dollar change in oil prices — an increase from a decade ago, when the one-dollar differential would increase or decrease revenue by $170 million.

The government's fall update expected oil prices to remain low, and Horner has warned Alberta mayors of a "tough go."

An online survey for Albertans to share their priorities for Budget 2026 is available on the government's website until Jan. 15, 2026.

Pipeline politics

The memorandum of understanding (MOU) signed by Alberta and Ottawa agrees an application for a new bitumen pipeline to the West Coast will be submitted for approval on or before July 1, 2026.

It was heralded by supporters as a major step forward, but it's not yet a done deal.

The Assembly of First Nations wants it scrapped. Chiefs in British Columbia say they'll use "every tool" they have to stop it. And B.C. Premier David Eby is not happy about it.

Analyst Heather Exner-Pirot says consultation will be key in the weeks and months ahead.

The director of energy, natural resources and environment at the Macdonald Laurier Institute says agreeing to carbon pricing for the project will be another hurdle.

Then there's the fact no buyer has yet announced interest in actually building the pipeline. But Exner-Pirot says it's likely there is one waiting in the wings.

"I don't think they would have said ... right in the MOU that it must have a private proponent if they didn't have one in their back pocket, if there wasn't someone that was interested," she said.

And while the MOU calls for those specifics to be sorted by July 1, Exner-Pirot says it might be a soft deadline, with more time in the latter half of 2026 to fine-tune details.

Relationship with Ottawa

The pipeline handshake seemed to some observers a sign of warming relations between the province and the federal government.

It also earned Smith boos from some attendees at the UCP's annual general meeting in November.

Williams says it's a balancing act for Smith.

"She's got to somehow look like she's fighting for Alberta against Ottawa [and] at the same time, actually accomplishing things that are going to be better for Alberta," said Williams.

The Alberta Next Panel says the province should continue "to reduce Alberta’s dependence on Ottawa and strengthen Alberta’s respect within the federation."

It is also recommending a referendum where Albertans can vote on the province taking more control over immigration from Ottawa.

Then there's the federal conservatives, who will be in Calgary in January for their convention where, among other matters, party faithful will vote in a leadership review of Pierre Poilievre.

The party's leader has said he feels confident he will pass the mandatory review and lead his party in the next election, whenever that may be. And he has the backing of Smith.

“The Premier supports Pierre Poilievre staying on as Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, and she will be attending and speaking at the upcoming convention in Calgary in January," Sam Blackett, the premier's press secretary, said in a statement.

To stay or not to stay in CPP?

Alberta's relationship with the Canada Pension Plan is also likely to be the focus of a referendum.

The Alberta Next Panel was tasked with hearing from people across the province on whether the government should withdraw from the Canada Pension Plan in favour of creating a province-specific alternative — an idea Smith first put forth in 2023.

In its recommendations, the panel said the idea should be put to Albertans in a referendum.

The panel says before that happens, the government should provide more information on the risks and benefits of leaving the CPP, as well as more details on how exactly an Alberta pension plan would work.

And a provincial plan would need to guarantee the same or better pension benefits for seniors, the panel said, while not costing workers higher premiums.

"Replacing the CPP with an APP is the most financially meaningful initiative Albertans have the right to pursue on our own to enhance our sovereignty and financial independence within a united Canada," the Alberta Next Panel recommendations read.

The panel also says it was the most hotly debated topic during the town halls, with a mix of misconceptions and legitimate concerns expressed.

A survey released by the province earlier this year showed 63 per cent of respondents were opposed to an Alberta plan. Ten per cent were in favour, with 12 per cent undecided or unsure.

The Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) Alberta launched an advertising campaign in November in support of remaining in the CPP.

“It’s time for [Smith] to give up on this extreme, ideological project and give Albertans the security we deserve," CUPE Alberta President Raj Uppal said in a statement online.

Health care shakeup

The government has passed legislation allowing surgeons to operate both in the public and private systems simultaneously, in what is set to be a Canadian first.

Patients will be able to pay for surgeries like hip and knee replacements to be done privately in the province.

The government says the new practice rules should be in place by spring 2026.

Smith first announced the legislation in November, saying it should help alleviate pressure on the public system and potentially reduce wait times.

Critics worry it establishes a two-tier health system.

"It will cause gross inequities in access to health care in Alberta and it threatens public health care across Canada," Friends of Medicare, an advocacy organization for universal public health care, wrote in an open letter this month to Prime Minister Mark Carney.

In a November interview, Canadian Medical Association President Dr. Margot Burnell said the organization has studied other countries that have established dual systems and found "the cost was increased and access to care was worse and the outcomes and key performance indicators were also worse."

Early election?

On paper, Albertans aren't set to head to the polls until October 2027. But that is not stopping political chatter that an election could be called as early as the spring.

Political analyst and columnist Graham Thomson has heard the rumblings, but thinks it's probably more strategy than possibility — likely a result of the Opposition aiming to motivate support.

When Thomson asked Smith during the UCP's annual general meeting if an early election was on her mind, she said she wanted to complete her mandate through October 2027.

"The government, it's not trying to hint they're going to go early. But this certainly isn't slamming a door on that idea," said Thomson.

Williams also doubts it will happen, unless there is success with any of the recall petitions — enough that it threatens the UCP's majority.

"If it looks like there is going to be a change in the composition in the legislature, then I think that might be what the government decides to do," she said.

With so many other issues hanging over the government, including electoral boundary changes and, chief of all, separation, Thomson says his gut tells him an early election is unlikely.

"You do not want to fight an election when the ballot question is separation. You're going to lose that fight," said Thomson.