Wowza! Trent Frederic a health scratch tonight, and Tristan Jarry out two weeks

This in from Tony Brar of Oilers TV, news that forward Trent Frederic, GM Stan Bowman’s big signing this past summer, is a healthy scratch for tonight’s game, with Curtis Lazar back. And Sportsnet’s Gene Principe reports newcomer goalie Tristan Jarry is out a few weeks.

Frederic signed an eight-year deal with the Oilers at $3.85 million per this past summer.

Said Tony Brar: “Pre-Game Notes:
• Roslovic returns after missing 11 games. Hutson back to Condors. Played well.
• Ingram starts vs. VGK.
• Lazar & Regula will also draw back in. Frederic will come out of the lineup.
• Clattenburg to LTIR.
• Walman & Kapanen will be available sometime after January 1st.”

And from Sportsnet’s Gene Principe: “Kris Knoblauch ‘Connor Ingram will start.’ Update on Tristan Jarry out a couple weeks.”

Reports Jim Matheson of the Journal: “Frederic healthy scratch with Lazar back after missing two games with leg inj. Regula returns for Stillman on D.”

My take

1. The scratching of Frederic has been months in the making. In fact, he’s yet to play any kind of strong hockey since he arrived in Edmonton at the trade deadline, first missing time with his high ankle injury, then playing weak two-way hockey in the playoffs. After Bowman signed him to the massive deal I hoped that Bowman and the Oilers had seen in Frederic in his Boston days the makings of an NHL power forward, because I had not seen that in the playoffs. But we still haven’t seen any kind of consistent effective play from Frederic. He looks slow on the ice, lacking agility.

In an excellent recent post, Allan “Lowetide” Mitchell found that in the last two seasons, this year and last, Frederic’s on-ice speed has decreased significantly from 2022-to-’24. He’s definitely lost a step, most likely due to injury.

As Lowetide wrote: “Frederic’s foot speed this season (34.96 kph) is slower than last season (35.48 kph) and the playoffs in the spring (35.94 kph). He was 36.88 (92nd percentile) in the 2022 playoffs, and may never get back there. I know high ankle sprains take time, and this was known at the time of the trade (Rachel Kryshak was on the Lowdown at the time of the deal quoting a doctor about the worry). Frederic gets ripped daily by fans, but for me this is an Oilers thing. Management and coaching should acknowledge the issue and have him work through it without costing the team.”

The question for the Oilers is whether or not Frederic can get back that step. It could well be he’s still recovering him his serious high-ankle sprain. One can hope because if this is all the Oilers are going to get from Frederic, Bowman made a misstep of monumental proportions.

2. When the Oilers say that Jarry is out for two weeks that number is written on sand at the beach. It could be two weeks. It could be two months. It’s hard to know. The Oilers give timelines for the return of players that often stretch out well past the initial estimate. Calvin Pickard was great in Edmonton’s 5-2 loss to the Wild, and he’s been better in the past month, but it’s a lot to ask of him and Connor Ingram, who starts tonight, to hold the fort in the long term.

Ingram has been poor in the AHL this year and he wasn’t that good in the NHL last year as he struggled with personal and mental health issues. But Ingram has been a steady NHL starting goalie in the past, so maybe he can get it done. Jarry’s absence represents a massive opportunity for him.

3. How weak has Frederic’s two-way play been? He’s just producing 0.45 points per 60 at 5-on-5, which is a number so low it’s hard to justify playing him. Anything below 1.0 points per 60 indicates an NHL player who is struggling to keep up in the NHL and had better have some other positive characteristic that makes up for his lack of offensive firepower.

4. In terms of his defensive play, no winger on the Oilers is leaking Grade A shots against like Frederic. Not even close. He’s making 1.38 major mistakes per 15 minutes of even strength play. The team average for wingers 0.88 per 15.

5. Where are we with Frederic? Where the team should be, playing better players ahead of him. Knoblauch’s job is to ice the best team possible that has the highest chance of winning. Right now that is a team where Frederic sits.

It could well be the best thing for him is to be into rehab. He could go on Long Term Injured Reserve and work hard to build up strength and flexibility in his legs and ankles without having to play games, then return to the team when his skating speed and agility is back.

There’s still a chance he’ll play a huge part in Edmonton succeeding this year, but not if his skating isn’t close to 100 per cent.

He used to be one of the fastest skaters in the league. Now he’s below average. How about work on that, get him fit and back to where he was before injury, then give it another go?

I know this is a radical approach. But the drop in Frederic’s performance is a radical change for the player.

At the Cult of Hockey

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