KINSELLA: Trump's decision to capture of Maduro the right move, but now what?

The Pottery Barn Rule.

The late, great U.S. secretary of state and General Colin Powell called it that. It was the Summer of 2002, and President George W. Bush was contemplating invading Iraq and removing the dictator Saddam Hussein from power.

“You break it, you buy it,” Powell allegedly told Bush. “You break it, you remake it.”

History will of course show that Bush went ahead anyway – and the cost in American and Iraqi lives was steep. A generation later, Iraq remains a cesspool of conflict, corruption and chaos.

Getting into armed conflict, getting into war, is always easy. The getting out part? Not so much.

The Pottery Barn Rule will accordingly be on the minds of many in Washington and world capitals this weekend as tall foreheads contemplate what comes next for Venezuela.

Does Donald Trump permit the oil-rich South American country to descend into sectarian turmoil, as in Libya, when Colonel Mu’ammar Qaddafi was removed from power in 2011?

Or, is a Manuel Noriega outcome possible? In that case, the U.S. used force to capture the drug-dealing Panamanian strongman in 1990, and the country entered into a period of relative stability and prosperity. (And, ironically, Noriega was deposed on the very same day – Jan. 3 – that Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro was, 36 years later.)

A Panamanian-style result is clearly what President Donald Trump hopes to achieve – not Libya or Iraq (or Afghanistan, or Vietnam, or Cuba, or any number of other such examples of regime-change failure).

Maduro captured without bloodshed on Trump’s orders

Despite the risk to American lives and treasure, Trump gave the order to capture Maduro – and the Venezuelan dictator and his wife were seized without bloodshed by U.S. special forces troops as the couple slept.

Trump, most fair-minded people will agree, was absolutely right to give the order to capture Maduro and take him to New York, where the human rights abuser has now been arraigned on drug trafficking charges. Maduro clearly lost the 2024 election and is a murderous thug – a monster who has kept his own people enslaved and starving.

Trump’s move was the right one, full stop.

And it seems to have been an unqualified success, as well. As Trump enthused on a call with Fox News on Saturday morning: “I was told by real military people that there’s no other country on Earth that can do such a maneuver. If you would have seen what happened, I mean, I watched it literally, like I was watching a television show.”

But removing Maduro was the easy part. What comes next won’t be.

The reason: Venezuela isn’t like Panama. For starters, thousands of U.S. troops aren’t already stationed there, as they were in Panama when Noriega was removed. Ensuring that the country does not collapse into Libyan-style anarchy is critical.

Moreover, Venezuela is a country of nearly 30 million people. Hunger and malnutrition are widespread there, and child mortality rates are the worst in the Western hemisphere. The U.S. cannot permit that horrendous situation to get worse.

And this: Venezuela has the largest proven reserves of oil in the world – far, far more than Canada, China, Saudi Arabia or any other oil-producing giant. China has poured billions into Maduro’s regime to ensure a steady supply of oil. So, too, Russia: Vladimir Putin has provided Maduro with financial aid, military hardware, and no shortage of diplomatic support in exchange for access to Venezuela’s oil sector.

China and Russia won’t be happy

The Chinese and the Russians are not going to be happy about this weekend’s events.

More than 300 billion barrels of oil are found in Venezuela’s Orinoco Belt, in the country’s East. One does not need to be an energy analyst to know that Donald Trump cannot permit that reserve to fall into the hands of regional warlords or America’s enemies. (And, as my colleague Brian Lilley has pointed out, U.S. control of Venezuelan oil reserves is not good news for its competitors in Canada’s oil patch.)

That’s why Trump and his advisors should be reflecting on Colin Powell’s Pottery Barn Rule this historic weekend.

Having now efficiently removed an evil despot from power – having now “broken” that foul regime – what is Trump going to do with it?

Because, make no mistake: for good or ill, America owns Venezuela now.