Oilers and Skinner have gone in (extreme) opposite directions in net since big trade

It’s just a small sample size of games, just nine games for the Edmonton Oilers and three games for Stuart Skinner  but Edmonton and Skinner have gone in opposite directions since the Dec. 12 trade of Skinner to the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Skinner was traded along with veteran d-man Brett Kulak and a second round draft pick in 2029 for Jarry.

Tristan Jarry had three wins and no losses, with an .887 save percentage, on his new Edmonton team before going out with a groin injury.

AHL call-up Connor Ingram has two wins, one loss and a .915 save percentage.

Skinner’s backup Calvin Pickard has been red hot, with a .924 save percentage in four games, two wins and two losses.

Skinner? Heading into Tuesday night’s action he had no wins, three losses and an .831 save percentage.

As a team, the Oilers have six wins and three loses without Skinner and have moved into first place in the Pacific Division for now.

In those nine games, the Oilers have a .907 save percentage overall, ninth best in the NHL. Before the traded Edmonton ranked 31st in the NHL with an .873 save percentage.

Such an improvement in Edmonton’s goaltending got me wondering if there wasn’t some difference in the number of Grade A or 5-alarm shots in the last nine games compared to the first 31 games. Maybe Edmonton had suddenly gotten a lot more stingy on defence and that would help explain the surge in goalie performance.

But, in fact, it’s the opposite. In the first 31 games, Edmonton gave up 13.9 Grade A shots per game, with the subset of 5-alarm shots 6.1 per game (Grade A shots go in about 22% of the time on average, while 5-alarmers go in about 33% of the time).

In the last nine games, Edmonton’s defensive play has dropped off, the team giving up 16.1 Grade A shots against per game with a subset of 7.9 5-alarm shots against per game.

All else being equal, we would expect Edmonton’s goalies to be having a harder time just now, not thriving. But they’re thriving.

What to make of it?

Nine games is a small sample size, so maybe Edmonton’s goalies have just been on hot streaks, while Skinner has been cold. That’s the most likely explanation.

But it could also be that in Edmonton, with Jarry hoping to make a good impression and both Pickard and Ingram both fighting for their NHL lives, that the increased motivation and competition has brought out the best in all three. Pickard is certainly acting just now like he’s been shot out of a cannon.

At the Cult of Hockey

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