Braid: Nenshi says NDP ready to crush government, dares UCP to call early vote

Bring it on, Naheed Nenshi dares the UCP. Call an early election.

The NDP leader feels the government is ripe for an almighty defeat.

Scheduled timing for a provincial vote is fall 2027, but rumours have flown for months about an early call.

Premier Danielle Smith said recently she’ll stick with the official date. Nenshi isn’t buying it.

“In the Opposition, we’re ready if they call an election in spring,” he said in a year-end interview.

“We’ll go if they call in the fall, we’ll go if they wait until 2027.

“Let’s never forget, this is the smallest majority Alberta has ever had. If any of the recalls are successful, it’s going to destabilize their government in a very big way.”

Smith’s UCP currently holds 47 seats and the NDP has 38.

Two former UCP members — Peter Guthrie and Scott Sinclair — could vote against the government in a confidence matter.

That’s why the recall movement across the province is a much bigger deal than the UCP lets on, Nenshi argues.

Currently, 26 official recall movements are afoot — 24 against UCP members and two that challenge New Democrats.

Thirteen full cabinet ministers, including the premier, face recalls at the signature stage.

“There are a number of ministers who are very vulnerable,” Nenshi says.

One might be Education Minister Demetrios Nicolaides, whose use of the notwithstanding clause in the teachers strike triggered the mass recall movement.

If a few UCP members were to lose recall elections (the next step after signatures), the government would suddenly be shaky.

Of course, the UCP would love to knock off the two New Democrats facing recall — Peggy Wright in Edmonton and Amanda Chapman in Calgary.

Will any recalls get that far? Smith has signalled that she might legislate a halt if recall becomes a “threat.” Obviously, she means a threat to the government.

Nenshi’s larger point is that the political climate is unstable for a variety of reasons beyond recall.

They include the possibility of a separatist referendum, and the success or failure of Smith’s memorandum of agreement with Ottawa.

Nenshi notes that after slamming the former federal NDP-Liberal alliance for years, the premier was booed at her party convention “for signing a UCP-Liberal alliance.”

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He also challenges Smith to put Thomas Lukaszuk’s Forever Canadian question to a vote.

“Lukaszuk has said multiple times that, under the legislation, what he was trying to get was not a referendum, but a vote in the legislature.

“And when I questioned the premier about it in the house, she said, well, you know the way it was written, he wants a referendum.”

Lukaszuk checked the box on his original petition to seek a legislative solution, meaning MLAs could vote on whether they agree that Alberta should stay within Canada.

The NDP really wants that legislature vote. The UCP really does not.

Nenshi adds: “I said in question period, this could all go away if we just have a vote that Albertans are proud Canadians, and only four of you need to come vote with us (in favour of Canada), or six of you stay home, and all this goes away.”

It’s no secret that strong separatist-leaners sit in Smith’s caucus. A debate on that question would be extremely uncomfortable for the government.

And so, Smith has pushed the whole issue into spring, when a new legislature committee will be created to consider Lukaszuk’s question.

This will allow months of stalling, during which a provincewide vote on a clear separatist question may be held.

“The walls are closing in on the UCP,” Nenshi argues.

He notes that the auditor general will release his report on the surgery procurement scandal before April, and an RCMP investigation is still underway.

“The UCP has no strategy,” Nenshi claims. “They are making it up as they go along, changing direction on a dime.

“But we are ready to go, any time.”

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald

X and Bluesky: @DonBraid