Nova Scotia’s population dips for the first time since 2020

Nova Scotia’s population dropped by nearly 1,400 people in the third quarter of 2025, marking the first decline since 2020 and the largest decline in a decade.

Statistics Canada released the figures Wednesday for every province and territory. Nova Scotia was part of a national trend, and the agency noted population decreases were mainly a result of changes to federal immigration policy.

The decline marks a notable shift following a population boom that kicked off during the COVID-19 pandemic when people from other provinces flocked to Nova Scotia and international immigration was high.

Growth started to slow in 2024 and decelerated even more in the first part of 2025. This summer, the numbers shifted down.

A breakdown of the figures from the provincial government shows permanent immigration is still net positive. What’s drawing the population down is a decrease in non-permanent residents. That number has been declining for a full year.

“This is the first occurrence of four consecutive quarters of non-permanent resident decline since the data series started in 1971,” says a report prepared by Finance Department officials based on the Statistics Canada numbers.

The whole country is losing non-permanent residents, according to Statistics Canada, and it attributes the decrease to the drop in study and work permit holders.

Saint Mary's University economics professor Ather Akbari says the population boom presented challenges — including a shortage of housing and backlogs in health care — but a declining population brings challenges of its own.

“We spend a lot on maintaining our roads and highways and public parks, and their costs are not going to go down with lower population,” he said in an interview.

“That would mean that their per capita cost will increase and the only way will be to increase our taxes to fund them or borrow money to fund them.”

In other terms, the tax base is shrinking and the only way for the province to deal with that will be to cut services or raise taxes.

Meanwhile, the province is projecting a record-high $1.2-billion deficit. An update on the provincial budget is expected this week.

Akbari noted that natural population changes have long been negative. Births have outnumbered deaths in Nova Scotia since 2016.

He said in the absence of changes to "fertility behaviour," the province will have to find ways to manage more immigration if it wants to avoid further population decline.

"Having seen that we can get more immigration, we can get more people from other provinces, we can get more international students, we have to be aware of what short-term problems can arise and we should be prepared for them," he said.

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