The simple math problem that is holding back the Toronto Raptors

The Toronto Raptors have a math problem.

In an NBA landscape that increasingly has gone three-point crazy over the past decade, the Raptors greatly prefer to launch shots of the two-point variety.

As a result, on a nightly basis they’re playing with a figurative hand tied behind their backs.

The Raptors take 31.7 three-pointers a game and make 11.6 of them. Only two teams attempt fewer and only four connect on fewer.

Plus, opponents attempt 6.1 more threes per game than the Raptors.

The 2024-25 Raptors made the second-fewest threes and the most recent time they were close to league average in three-point attempts and makes was way back in 2021-22. Since then they’ve also been 28th, 28th and 23rd in accuracy and actually are up to 14th in marksmanship this season at 35.5%, indicating that if they’d just take more three-pointers, they might have enough good shooters to make the numbers work more in their favour.

That might be a stretch, since only Immanuel Quickley, Jamison Battle and Brandon Ingram can be considered elite shooters, and Ingram prefers to operate in the mid-range and at the rim (his three-point attempts are way down from his highs while with New Orleans). But if Scottie Barnes’ rise as a shooter is real, they’re a different team than before and capable of more.

Right now though, they give up the ninth-most attempts and, unlike some of the teams that surrender more, don’t provide enough balance by shooting enough three-pointers of their own.

Tuesday’s NBA Cup quarterfinal opponent New York presents some of the same problems as Boston did on Sunday. The Celtics connect on an NBA-best 16 three-pointers per game and also take an average 43.3 (ranking third in attempts), while the Knicks make 15.4 (fourth) and take 41 a game (sixth).

The Raptors made a stirring rally Sunday to nearly erase a 23-point Celtics edge and had a chance to get within three points with 22.9 seconds remaining but missed a rare three-point attempt. It was shocking the game was that close seeing as Boston hit nearly as many threes (20) as Toronto attempted (22).

Sandro Mamukelashvili, who missed that late Toronto three (he said he should have let it fly immediately instead of faking first), is aware of the issue against teams like Boston and New York.

THREES WORTH MORE THAN TWOS

“Analytically, threes are (worth) more than twos, so whenever, sometimes we have like situations to shoot threes, it’s great to get them up as well and kind of be there with them, because when we come down, we’re making a basket If (Boston or another team like them) come and shoot threes, they still gonna have, if the amount of possessions are the same, they’re still gonna have more threes, and it will be tight game,” Mamukelashvili told the Toronto Sun.

“Or they if we don’t, we’re not making shots, then they’re going to be over-run. When you play a team who shoot threes (like that) it’s so tough because they’re always one point ahead.”

Compounding the math issue is how hard the elite offensive teams make opponents work to try to keep them in check.

When asked if it takes more energy to defend against teams like Boston and New York, Mamukelashvili said, “of course, because they’re all a threat from the three … It’s tough when you have four shooters on the court.”

The big man thought Toronto did a much better job in the second half Sunday of making the Celtics shoot fewer or tougher threes (they attempted 27 in the first half, but only 20 the rest of the way).

HOW TO DEFEND

“So you can have short closeouts, they put you in scramble and if you close out hard, they drive in and there’s somebody else open for three,” Mamukelashvili said.

“So make sure you close out hard, let them drive and contest them at the rim (like Toronto did later in the game).

“But also in our in our mentality, paint is king. You know, we want to defend the paint, so sometimes you got to give up something.”

That’s also true. You can’t guard everything well and the Raptors have been above average (13th) in surrendering the fewest points in the paint and also don’t give up a lot of easy buckets, ranking third overall in fewest fast break points allowed.

@WolstatSun