Canada prepares for a rise in border crossings with threat of mass deportations under Trump

The return of Donald Trump to the White House has groups who work with newcomers preparing for the possibility of an increase in people making their way across the Canadian border.

Trump promised during the election campaign to begin deporting millions of undocumented immigrants on his first day in office.

Regardless of whether he follows through on that pledge when he takes office in January, the second Trump presidency could have a "profound impact on Canada's borders," said Jennifer Elrick, an associate professor of sociology at McGill University who studies immigration policy.

The mere threat of mass deportation could lead to an increase in both asylum claims at official ports of entry and attempts to make clandestine crossings into Canada by foot, Elrick said.

There was a surge in arrivals in the months after Trump took power in 2017. Starting in the summer of that year, thousands of people crossed into Canada, primarily at Roxham Road, near Hemmingford, Que.

A more dangerous journey

Now, crossing is more difficult. Roxham Road was closed after Canada and the U.S. changed the Safe Third Country Agreement last year, expanding its terms to cover the entire land border rather than just formal crossings.

That expansion put an end to Roxham Road as an end-run around that system. In the months since, there have been far fewer interceptions by the RCMP — and more asylum claims at the airport and official land borders.

Melissa Claisse, who works at the Montreal-based Welcome Collective, which was established to help those who crossed in 2017, said her group is ready for the possibility of another increase in new arrivals.

She also worries the closure of Roxham Road will lead more people to attempt dangerous crossings.

"It's very possible we're going to see people in remote areas in mid-winter, and we've already seen people dying in situations like that," said Claisse, the group's communications co-ordinator.

A security camera monitors an area near Roxham Road, on the Canada-U.S. border between Quebec and New York. (Sarah Leavitt/CBC)

RCMP on alert

The Mounties have been preparing for months for that possibility in the event of a Trump victory, said RCMP Sgt. Charles Poirier, who is based in Montreal.

"We're ready with different types of scenarios, whether it be just a few individuals or a massive influx," Poirier said in an interview.

The RCMP says the closure of Roxham Road could lead to more people crossing in more remote areas. In recent months, authorities have also seen an increase in human trafficking heading from Canada into the U.S.

"If people start crossing everywhere on the territory like the southbound are doing, that is going to be much more difficult," he said.

"It's going to be a complete game changer because those people will still have to be brought to a central facility. But our officers, we'll be running across the territory to catch them."

The Canada Border Services Agency declined an interview request, but said in a statement it "works in an operating environment that changes on a daily basis and we are ready to respond and adapt as needed."

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Political fallout

The threat of more migrants quickly became a talking point in Quebec this week. Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon warned that millions of people might consider moving north following Trump's election.

Premier François Legault followed by saying he would press Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to "make sure he protects the border."

Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Centre in downtown Montreal, said he doesn't expect a huge influx of refugees overnight.

"Whatever Trump will enact, we will not see the remnants probably for another year," he said. As it stands, he said, the majority of people who come to his centre claim asylum after arriving at the airport.

The biggest obstacle they face, he said, is the long wait for a work permit.

Elrick said more people coming across the border — without claiming asylum — could lead to a greater number of undocumented people who never report to authorities. She noted there is no accurate count of how many undocumented immigrants live in Canada, though researchers have estimated as many as 500,000 people are without status.

Regardless of whether Trump follows through on his promise, Elrick said there will need to be a bigger discussion about "how we plan to manage this form of migration that hasn't been at the top of our radar historically."

WATCH | How Quebecers feel about another Donald Trump presidency: